The Brexit Election
The December 2019 General Election was defined by the ever more pressing issue of Brexit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson had inherited Theresa May’s minority government when he became party leader in July 2019 following May’s resignation and was finding himself in a position where he would be unable to, to quote the mantra “Get Brexit Done”. Thus, he needed a majority to push through a deal that would suit his Brexiteer wing of the Conservative Party.
Both Johnson and Corbyn fought hard to secure the victory but ultimately Boris won a landslide, becoming the strongest Conservative Government since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 win. With 365 seats, Boris left Corbyn with a shocking 203, smashing through the so-called Red Wall and delivering Labour a loss worse than that of Michael Foot, a man whose Manifesto has been dubbed “The longest suicide note in history” on account of its unelectability. The reason for this horrific defeat and overwhelming victory fall into three main obvious categories: the triumphs and failings of policy, the decisiveness of Boris Johnson, and the weakness of Jeremy Corbyn. All three of these reasons also follow rational choice theory, the idea simply that people do that which is in their best interests. The public sees radical policy in a time of great change and they deem it to be destabilising, compared to the more moderate and inherently conservative one. They see an uninspiring, scruffy old man fighting for justice whilst mishandling an antisemitism plague vs a charismatic, bold, decisive, and determined one that promises to lead the Britain through the oncoming storm, and they choose accordingly… (Leftwich, 2004)
Policy
The Labour policies weren’t inherently unpopular with the public, as YouGov data shows plainly. When presented in simple terms, a more equal society sounds excellent. Everybody likes free things, everybody likes better public services, everybody likes more money. The issue, as Matthew Smith of YouGov notes, is that these policies were deemed unrealistic by the majority of the public. When Boris talks about Labour’s obsession with the “magic money tree” and Andrew Neil shreds Labour’s “fully-costed plan” to pieces in front of the nation, the public’s confidence in these radical changes naturally begins to wane. The public also understands that these changes would be costly to the taxpayer and are generally unwilling to pay for them, with just 34% of people being willing to vote for an increase in the basic rate of tax. Likewise, Labour have earned a reputation of being untrustworthy with money, spending big and then leaving the Conservatives to clean up their mess and heave the country out of recession. 57% of those polled believed that the country would enter a recession within the next few years if Labour were to have won the election. Therefore, it follows that they would not vote for these seemingly radical policies despite liking the concepts in principle. (Smith, 2019)
The Conservative Policies were still radical, especially for Conservatives. Johnson’s government promised an £80 billion spending spree in the North (noted to be Labour’s classic stronghold). However, due to the Conservative’s aforementioned good reputation with the economy, the public were far more willing to bite when Johnson spoke on large spending projects. (Savage, 2019). They also won in the profoundly important area- Brexit. Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” mantra was drilled into every aspect of his campaign and helped tremendously to take the North by storm, disintegrating the Red Wall and making every single prospective Tory MP swear to back his Brexit deal to even be considered as a candidate. This was a government that genuinely wanted to deliver on their big policy, compared to Labour which was greatly divided between Remainers and Brexiteers, with Corbyn’s own position on Brexit being left up to much speculation due to his repeated refusal to say. Labour did manage to find a coherent Brexit policy in the weeks leading up to the election, but it spelled more “dither and delay” to the British public compared to the Conservative longing to just get on with Brexit, which echoed the overwhelming public voice.
It therefore follows with Rational Choice Theory that the people would overwhelmingly vote for the party that represents its interests the strongest. The Conservatives would be guaranteed to get on with Brexit if granted a majority whereas Labour would drag out the process for longer and with a policy that many were unclear on. The economic policies also fell in the Conservatives favour, being able to promise large spends without dealing with Labour’s reputation of poor money management. The rational choice would, of course, be to back the Conservative government from a policy aspect
The Failures of Jeremy Corbyn
When faced up against a Prime Minister such as Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn shone. Her snap election saw her lose 13 seats where Corbyn gained 30 and her hopes to strengthen her majority were snatched from her by Corbyn as she failed to make the majority at all. (BBC, 2017). However, in the 2019 election it was Johnson, not May that faced Corbyn and he could not come across weaker by comparison. May was a leader that had nothing but failures at her back, an incredible lack of charisma and a generally grey and dull way of presenting herself. Boris, however, made Corbyn look like May. The stereotype for Labour leaders is that they are meant to be the younger, brighter advocate for the Youth whereas the Conservatives are the boring Etonians in suits. Tony Blair set this in place after modelling himself somewhat on Mick Jagger, actively presenting himself as active and cool. (Powell, 2006). However, Corbyn was slow speaking, white haired and untidy, an almost antithesis of Blair, and whilst he did also develop somewhat of a personality cult under May it soon fell apart when Johnson took over. Johnson’s strong, decisive, and fun-loving personality overshadowed Corbyn’s passionate yet bland politics of justice and he simply could not stop the BoJo phenomenon.
He also came under a great deal of scrutiny during his campaign for not being able to explain the funding for his “fully costed” economic plan, particularly in an Andrew Neil interview clip regarding to the £60 billion he would have to find to pay off the WASPI Women as this was not something he had costed in the Labour Grey Book. In the same Neil interview, he also refused to say that he would make certain tough military decisions in times of crisis, something which pitted him at absolute odds with Johnson who saw himself as somewhat Churchillian. A leader, many would criticise, should be able to decisive in times of war and make the unpleasant decisions necessary to save many more innocent lives, and this was something that Corbyn refused to declare he would in front of the entire nation, making him look weak. (Corbyn, 2019)
Corbyn’s greatest failing was of course his antisemitic problem. Whether or not one believes that the man himself is an anti-Semite, it is undeniable that the Labour Party had a serious problem of antisemitism under Corbyn and that Corbyn’s lack of leadership in this aspect lost him a great deal of respect from any who would typically align themselves with Labour’s just values. A report from the Equality and Human Rights Commission finds that Jeremy Corbyn showed “serious failings in leadership” regarding antisemitism, and that at worst “could be seen to accept it” within the party. (EHRC, 2020) . Again in the damning Andrew Neil interview, Corbyn refuses to apologise for the antisemitism in the Labour Party and his mishandling of antisemitic comments made by party members under him. (Corbyn, 2019)
It follows once again that Rational Choice Theory would deem Corbyn the natural loser then. His lack of charisma and strength when compared to Johnson when heading into a turbulent period for Britain (Brexit), as well as his inability to explain costing for certain policies when pushed, a weakness of military leadership and an indescribably fatal antisemitism problem under his nose turned the public away from Corbyn hideously and his leadership of the Labour party in this election will go down as one of the greatest failures in the party’s history.
The Sly Fool: Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson, on the other hand, handled his Andrew Neil interview by simply refusing to do it, which whilst made him look weak to those that pay a lot of attention to the comings and goings of interview schedules, also didn’t give Neil the opportunity to expose his many flaws to the nation at large. (Tobitt, 2019) He made sure to represent himself as the face of Brexit, built a personality cult to rival Blair and really drove home the fact that he would “Get Brexit Done”. He executed this all with a jolliness and confidence that bestowed support from Brexiteers and those simply fed up with the whole process and wanted to get it over and done with. (McElvoy, 2019)
He also played the angle of a strong, military style leader whilst also being the lovable clown the public adored as mayor, fitting his sister Rachel’s description of him as “a sly fox disguised as a teddy bear” (Grimley, 2013) and performed an almost Augustan (who he has noted as one of his heroes) purge of the Conservative party removing leader of the House Ken Clarke and fellow leadership contender Rory Stewart, among others (Unlisted, 2019). He frequently referred to Remainer Tories and Labour MPs as “traitors”, showing himself as the true believer in the will of the British public which undoubtedly got the North, fed up with Tory lies and failure to achieve the will of what was largely the North, to back Boris. He also modelled himself on other great historical figures such as Pericles for his belief in democracy and incredible infrastructure projects, both of which were integral to Boris’ image in this election (Johnson F. , 2019) . Churchill was, however, Boris’ greatest inspiration and allowed him to reflect starkly against Corbyn’s lacking military leadership in the Neil interview, especially given that Boris had even gone so far as to write a book on Churchill describing him as “the greatest statesman Britain had ever produced” (Johnson B. , 2014)
There is an argument to be made that Boris’ election as Prime Minister and victory in the 2019 election goes against rational choice theory, as Boris has proven himself time and time again to be untrustworthy as a leader, with his falsifying of video evidence in an interview of Keir Starmer (Jim Waterson, 2019) as well as his previously mentioned dodging of the Andrew Neil interview, and notoriously hiding in a fridge to avoid an interview with Piers Morgan (Heather Stewart, 2019). So why would the British public bestow their trust in Boris to deliver Brexit? Leftwich once again has an answer, making the argument that Rational Choice Theory only lends itself to one’s individual circumstances. Does Boris hiding from interviews affect the individual? Not greatly. Does Brexit? Does the economy? Absolutely. For the same reason that we continue to use electric lights and use plastic bags despite the decline of the planet, we make the rational choice that is most convenient to us in that moment. If Boris does show himself to be untrustworthy, he can be outvoted by a no confidence vote from his party, or if it comes to it the next election. It is far more beneficial to blindly trust in his competence and hope that he can deliver on the policies that line up with public wants that give Downing Street to Corbyn (who also as we have proven didn’t have the public’s trust at all).
Conclusion
The result of the 2019 election was by no means an unexplainable landslide for Johnson’s Conservative Party, but instead a mixture of smart policy decision from the Conservatives pitted against popular but radical policy from Labour. Given Labour’s reputation for money and Corbyn’s unpopularity, their popular policies couldn’t win them the votes they needed to get into No. 10. Speaking of Corbyn, his own poor leadership and various scandals lost him the respect of the groups he needed to win the most; the middle class, north and socially conscious youth. Johnson on the other hand was notoriously controversial, bumbling, and shocking but used these traits to his advantage, playing up his personality ahead of the election whilst doubling down just how much he wanted to be done with Brexit, with a strong Leave stance to overshadow Labour’s confusing and extending one. Rational Choice theory backs the people with every decision they made, and thus it is absolutely clear why Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party won the December 2019 General Election.
Written at University, May 2021
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