Now a proven champion, Aljamain Sterling has no time to rest on his laurels. He faces a consensus great Bantamweight in TJ Dillashaw. After edging out a close but clear decision over the former champion and fellow UFC 280 card-mate Petr Yan. Aljamain Sterling proved to the fans that he was indeed at the top of the ultra-competitive 135-pound division.
Into The Fire
Aljamain Sterling is understandably known to most as a wrestler. Which seems to discredit the work he puts in towards his striking. As a lengthy Bantamweight, Sterling chooses to box at a distance with looping punches. He keeps range well with his stance-switching stepping straights and jabs. What sets Sterling apart from every other wrestler with some hands is his frantic kicking game. As discussed in my piece regarding the main event of this card, confidence on the ground opens a fighter up to full utilisation of their kicks. Aljamain builds off of this deftly, attacking the legs, body and head with round, front and even spins.
As a long fighter, Sterling’s biggest concern on the feet is his opponent entering the pocket with him. From inside his range, Sterling will be unable to use his kicks and long looping punches. Without serious stopping, power Sterling has begun to show a way of dealing with those insistent on entering the pocket. Similarly to Cory Sandhagen’s recent development, Sterling will use various types of elbows as his opponent’s dart or pressure in. Sometimes a level change into an up-elbow or spinning elbow is the weapon of choice. Other times a traditional horizontal slashing elbow. These serve a dual purpose of giving Sterling legitimate hurting power alongside the ability to open cuts and deal fight-ending damage. Sandhagen found success opening cuts in his bout against Dillashaw.
Aljamain Sterling – A Grappling Specialist
Whilst his striking has drastically improved. Aljamain’s main game seems to be relentlessly chasing takedowns when faced with dangerous strikers; a bill which Dillashaw absolutely fits. When pressured Sterling will often look to drop in on the hips, pushing his opponent to the fence and building up to clinches where he can implement trips and throws. In recent fights, he’s shown a brilliant ability to chain-wrestle. Grabbing onto a traditional takedown and responding to his opponent’s defences until he can secure the shot.
Sterling is driven with the sole purpose of being a human backpack and taking the back comes almost automatically at this stage in his career. Against Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen, their instincts to turn away and break grips or stand up cost them dearly. Aljamain jumped on the back and refused to relinquish the position until they were either out cold or the clock ran down. Even without an immediate back-take, Sterling has shown some savvy techniques on the ground. Threatening submissions or transitions prompt the opponent to expose their back.
Righting The Wrongs
TJ Dillashaw steps immediately back into a title fight after a close bout with Cory Sandhagen which many scored for The Sandman. TJ as a striker seems to do his best work where Sterling struggles. He enters range with a combination of constant feints, darting footwork and switching his stance to pressure forward. Against longer fighters, TJ may employ a superman punch to spring directly into the pocket. This is where he can get to work with his shifting straights.
Former Champion For a Reason
Dillashaw’s credentials as a Team Alpha Male wrestler aid his striking as he uses the threat of the level change to dip into many of his strikes. A straight may be utilised as he dips and steps in, switching his stance in the process. Alternatively, Dillashaw may choose to engage fighters in boxing exchanges before throwing a cross and dipping into a kick on the same side. This in particular lands with incredible frequency. If fighters start to react to these kicks by lowering their level, Dillashaw has been known to employ uppercuts.
Dillashaw’s wrestling is best served to set up his striking. If his takedown threats are established, he can use them to open his dipping entries and kicks. That being said, Dillashaw’s takedowns are a genuine threat to most opponents. Dillashaw boxes and utilises his footwork to set up his takedowns. Dropping in on the legs from his pocket entries at times. Dillashaw has shown a willingness and preference for frantic, fast-paced groundwork over any sort of dominating the top game. If he’s striking on the ground, it’s as if he’s knocked his opponent down. He’ll throw hard elbows and punches until they can scramble to the feet. Where TJ can be tricky, is along the fence, using trips and cage double legs to get his opponents down and forcing them to work their way up to expend energy and seal a round.
The Matchup Between Aljamain Sterling and TJ Dillashaw
Despite his insistence on striking at the weigh-ins, Aljamain Sterling will find it his hardest path to victory. Whilst Sterling has the range on Dillashaw. I find myself dubious as to how effectively he’ll be able to utilise it. Without proven stopping power in his longer punches and indeed his kicks, Sterling will have to overwhelm and counter Dillashaw to prevent him from entering into range. As someone proven at darting into the pocket beautifully and cracking his opponents with popping combinations. Dillashaw should be able to mitigate much of Sterling’s traditional offence. Sterling’s habit of leaning heavily into his hooks makes him somewhat of a mark for the head-kicks of Dillashaw. His tendency to dip could see him fall into trouble against the uppercuts.
On the flip side, if I’m backing Sterling I’m looking for him to throw elbows and knees. Dillashaw’s love of dipping entries could see him vulnerable to the knee and his darting style could see Sterling similarly choose some shorter-range elbows to Cory Sandhagen vs Song Yadong.
Who Wins the Grappling Exchanges?
The grappling also presents challenges for Sterling. Dillashaw has not ever been an easy man to grapple, with solid takedown defence and a refusal to accept positions. In the same vein, Sterling hasn’t shown himself to be the consummate takedown artist with a 21% takedown accuracy- lower than Dillashaw’s actually. Where Sterling has succeeded with his takedowns is in sheer volume and ability to capitalise on mistakes. Often shooting relentlessly until he either tires himself out or takes the back.
Dillashaw hasn’t shown a tendency to give up his back in the way that a fighter like Sandhagen has but he’s also not had an opponent that’s desperately trying to make his way there before. When faced with Sterling’s trickiness, it’s hard to gauge whether Dillashaw will be actively hiding his back or will slip into the habits that caught out Petr Yan. What we can say is that Dillashaw’s scrambling and high submission defence should give Sterling a hard time.
Sterling’s best chance at landing takedowns may be working within a habit of Dillashaw’s. Oftentimes Dillashaw’s constant kicking finds his legs being caught or-even worse- slipping to the canvas as he kicks. In these scenarios, Sterling would have Dillashaw on the ground or at least one of his legs without going through the effort of trying to actively grapple Dillashaw. He could conserve much of the energy he expends with his unsuccessful takedowns and stigmatises one of Dillashaw’s best weapons in the process, as Dillashaw will be less likely to those the kicks if they get him into trouble.
Styles Make Fights
Characterising this fight as simply ‘striker vs grappler’ feels vastly underappreciative of both fighters’ roundedness. That being said, it would seem that Dillashaw should aim to strike and Sterling should be aiming for takedowns or back takes as much as possible. I believe that Dillashaw’s defensive grappling is closer to Sterling’s skill level than Sterling’s striking is to Dillashaw’s. Whilst not making predictions, Sterling appears to have the odds stacked against him once again. A win against Dillashaw would cement him in the upper echelon of all-time Bantamweights, whereas the win for Dillashaw should etch his as a legacy unlike any other. This fight is the one that I find the most compelling of the entire UFC 280 card. No matter which way it goes, it’s sure to entertain.
Published on UK Combat Sports (World MMA News) on 20 October 2022
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